The Rating

How good was that run?

Theory: one number for one run

A finishing position tells you who beat whom that day. It doesn't tell you how good the race was. A horse that finishes fourth in a Group 1 may have run far better than the winner of a small handicap.

The MWP rating puts a number on each run: how well the horse ran, on one scale for every country MWP covers. Higher is better. A 140 at Ascot and a 140 at Sha Tin are meant to be the same level of performance.

A rough ladder helps. About half of all rated runs reach 110. One in four reaches 120. Around 135 is Group-race level, and Group 1 winners average a little over 140. A run of 145 or more is rarer than one in 500.

The Queen Anne field sits at the very top of that ladder. Several of these horses have run in the high 140s, which is why this is a Group 1.

A level is a range

Horses don't run the same number every time. Dancing Gemini's latest three figures are 149, 146 and 147. Carl Spackler's latest is 158, the highest on the card, but the three before it were 138, 151 and 153.

Which horse is better? Carl Spackler has the biggest single number. Dancing Gemini has shown his level more steadily lately. Both facts matter, and neither settles the race.

So read a range, not a greatest hit. Ask what the horse usually runs, how often it has reached its best, and how recent that best is. One big figure is evidence. It isn't a promise.

One run is not the horse

Bad runs happen: a slow start, no room, the wrong ground. Unusually good runs happen too. In our data, a horse usually gets most of the way back after one poor run, and gives back most of an unusually good one. So don't write a horse off for one bad figure, and don't crown it for one great one.

When a figure stands out, look for the reason. The race comment and the flags in the form row usually tell you: “slow start”, “raced wide”, “has excuse”. A run with a clear excuse tells you less about the horse than a clean one.

Lead Artist shows it. His run at Sandown in April reads 120, far below anything else in his form. The comment explains it: he hung right and weakened quickly, and the card flags an excuse. Next time out he won a Group 1 at Newbury with 150.

The official rating is something else

The OR on the runner line is the local handicapper's mark. It moves slowly, differs between countries and has no common scale; its job is to set weights in handicaps. The MWP rating measures each run. Use the OR to understand the weights, and the MWP rating to compare performances.

Practical: two form lines

Quiz: reading the rating

Up next: today's race. Distance, surface, going and draw decide which runs in the form count most.