Today's Race

Distance, surface, going and draw.

Theory: which runs count today

A best figure only helps if it was earned in conditions like today's. Before you compare horses, sort each horse's form: which runs look like this race?

Four things decide it: distance, surface, going and draw.

Distance

Some horses are quick over short trips; others need further to show their best. A horse that has only raced over sprint distances hasn't shown what it does over a mile.

Lake Forest is the example in the Queen Anne. All eight of his runs were between 1200m and 1400m, and today is 1610m. His best figures, two 148s, came over 1220m. That doesn't prove he won't stay a mile. It means the card can't tell you, and your view of him should be wider because of it.

Surface

Turf is grass. MWP groups the rest as dirt, which includes the all-weather tracks in Britain and Ireland. Form on one surface doesn't guarantee the same level on another.

Notable Speech won his first three races on Kempton's all-weather before winning Group 1s on turf. For a turf race you lean on his turf figures, where his best at a mile is 147.

Going

The going describes the ground, from firm through good to soft and heavy. Some horses need a fast surface; others cope with soft ground or even prefer it. Today is good.

Check where a horse's best runs came. If all its good figures were on soft ground and the sun has been out all week, that's worth a note. On a live card the weather box shows the forecast, because the going can change before the race.

Draw

The draw is the starting stall. On a round course an inside draw can save ground on the bends. On a straight course like Ascot's mile, it matters more through which part of the track is faster and where the pace is.

On a live card, MWP colours each gate: green where that stall has done better than average at this track and distance, red where it has done worse. Hover for the numbers and the sample size. Treat it as a hint. A real draw effect is usually known to the market already, and small samples fool people. The historical cards in this course switch the colours off, because they are built from later results.

Pace in one question

Who wants to lead? Each run in the form shows how the horse raced: Frontrunner, Presser, Midpack or Closer. If one horse is the only natural leader, it may get an easy time in front. If several want the lead, they can tire each other out and set the race up for horses coming from behind. That one question is enough for now.

A note per horse

Put it together as one line for each runner: its level in runs that fit today, and the question mark, if there is one. “146 to 149 at a mile on good ground; no obvious question.” Or: “Best figures over 1200m; the mile is untested.”

Practical: fit the form to the race

Quiz: today's conditions

Up next: readiness. The figures say what a horse can do; the next chapter asks whether it's likely to do it today.