Expected rating and the handicapper panel

Make your own view of the race

Everything so far looked backwards. This is where you look forward.

What is the expected rating?

The Exp number on each runner line is an estimate of what the horse will run to today. Where our model has run, the number is filled in for you.

• It is a forecast, not a result. A past rating describes a run that happened; the expected rating is a view of today.
• It often sits below a horse's recent best. Horses tend to fall back from their peaks, and the model knows it.
• The gaps between the horses matter more than the numbers themselves.
• It is usually ready the evening before the races. If the card says the predictions are not available yet, the model has not run for that day.

We don't publish how the model works. What matters for you is what it is for: a sensible starting point that you then agree or disagree with.

The handicapper panel

Press Visualize ↓ at the top, or scroll to the bottom of the card.

• Each horse has its expected rating with − and + buttons.
• Each dot shows where that horse would finish, in lengths behind the winner, if they all ran to those numbers. Distance and weight are already counted in.
• Change a number and the picture updates at once.

How do I use it?

1. Start from the model's numbers.
2. Study the form. Where do you disagree? A horse coming back to its best trip, one with red bias marks, one that had excuses last time.
3. Move those horses up or down and see what the race looks like now.
4. Reset to Model puts the model's numbers back.

What do people get wrong?

They treat the model's order as the answer. It is the question: what have you noticed that the number hasn't?

See it on the card: open any racecard and press 📖 Tour at the top right. The tour points at each of these things in turn. Start the tour on the free sample card.

Want the thinking behind it? That is what the course is for. The Intro track is free; the full course is coming soon.